LETTER FROM THE COO
Kiawah Fares Well in Hurricane Dorian
This kind of note seems like an annual occurrence
for me now. Each year since 2015, we’ve had a storm
event impact the island in some way – a 1000-year
flood, hurricanes and tropical storms, and even an
unprecedented snowstorm. I’m grateful to report that
the island as a whole fared well in Hurricane Dorian.
While we had a big mess to clean up, island facilities,
infrastructure, and homes were spared significant
damage.
I’m sure you’re as relieved as I am that the impact was
not nearly what was anticipated, but it’s important to
consider just how close a call we had. Had the storm
path shifted slightly west, or if it passed during one of
the high tides earlier that week, we would have had
serious problems, including the predicted widespread
flooding.
KICA resilience specialist Lucas Hernandez reviewed
the updates from the National Hurricane Center for
Thursday, Sept. 5 at 12 p.m. and 1 p.m., which is the
timeframe in which the eye of the hurricane skirted
our coast, bringing high-speed winds but less rainfall
than the night before. Lucas’s report included the
following:
To understand why this storm provided limited
inundation despite the high speed winds that
accompanied it, we must understand several factors
that exacerbate the overall effects of a tropical storm.
Timing (in respect to the tide cycle), wind speed/direction,
rainfall, low/high pressure systems, and the speed at which
the storm moves over a specific location all combine to
create an impactful storm. On Kiawah, we received
very little rainfall as the storm sped up during its pass
by the area (2.24 in. total). Wind speeds were high, but
this seemed to be helpful in relation to flooding. The
tides staged higher for Sept. 4 than they did during the
storm, and again after the storm’s eye passed Charleston.
At about 2 p.m. on Sept. 5, the tide gauge readings
fell below the predicted values from NOAA. This is in
line with the time at which the eye was moving past
Charleston.
As the counterclockwise rotation of the storm approached
the Charleston area, east to west winds pushed water
2 | KIAWAH ISLAND DIGEST
landward raising the tidal height; however, this happened
at a significantly low tide for our area, offsetting most of
the impact. As the storm passed, the tidal cycle began to
rise, but due to the storm’s counterclockwise rotation on
the back-end, the winds shifted east to west and pushed
the water away from the land. This offset the rising tide.
“Because the storm was far enough out to sea, the core
of the strongest winds stayed east of the coastline” (Ron
Morales, CHS NWS). The result was a lower than
expected surge and tide stage, which kept inundation
minimal for the area. Morales summarized his report by
stating, “We got very lucky with how the tides worked
out, but the observed winds and rainfall were close to
what was forecasted…As scientists, we are always looking
to better understand what happened so we can provide
a better service in the future. This situation is a great
example of why we have to use probabilistic information
with hurricanes to express the uncertainty of the impacts.
A slight jog to the west in the track, and/or a slower/faster
motion would have resulted in far more serious impacts.”
In addition to my relief over dodging a far worse
situation, I’m also grateful for the numerous KICA
employees who canceled Labor Day plans to prepare
for the storm, and the dozens who were here along
with our emergency contractors to immediately
begin clean up. As reported to the board at a special
meeting on Sept. 17, estimates suggest the clean-up
and mitigation costs will be between $500,000 and
$600,000. We expect to have additional detail in time
for the October board meeting, at which time the
funding of this effort will be discussed.
While clean-up efforts are ongoing, other aspects
of island life and KICA operations have returned to
normal. Our staff is hard at work preparing a draft
2020 budget, which will soon be reviewed by the
Finance Committee. Clubs and groups are getting
back into the swing of things, and as I type this,
Kiawah and the Lowcountry are getting its first taste
of fall weather. It’s a wonderful time of year, and I
look forward to seeing many of you around the island.